人工智能依旧火爆，相关股票仍然有上行空间
A.I.isahotcommodityrightnow,causingatechdisruptionandpushingcompanies’valuationsthroughtheroof—butthetechnologyhasalsobeenmetwithskepticismaswellasoutrightfearthatitcouldtriggerArmageddon.
Whileexpertsaredividedonhowartificialintelligencewillimpactstocks,jobs,andtheglobaleconomy,onetechanalystisdoublingdownonhisviewthattheA.I.presentsahugeopportunityforinvestors.
DanIves,ananalystatWedbush,saidinanotetoclientsonJune26thatthankstotheA.I“goldrush,”techstockswouldbeheatingupinthesecondhalfofthisyear.
“A.I.haschangedthetechworldandinvestorsentiment,”hesaid,labelingthetechnology’simpactonmarketsas“aninternetmoment.”
Ivesstressed,however,thattheA.I.hypewasakintoa“1995internetmoment”ratherthana1999dotcombubblemoment—referringtothetechbubblethatburstafterinvestorspouredmoneyintointernet-focusedfirms.
“Thesecond,third,andfourthderivativesofthisA.I.goldrusharejuststartingtoevolveforthetechlandscape,”Iveswrote.“Aswehavecoveredthetechsectorfordecadesandsawthedotcombubbleandburstfirsthand,[webelieve]thisisthestartofafourthindustrialrevolutionplayingoutacrosstechoverthecomingyearsthatisstillbeingunderestimatedbytheStreetinouropinion.”
InaninterviewwithCNBConJune28,Ivesaddedthathe“doesnotbelievethatthisisahypecycle.”
Wedbushhasprojectedthatby2024,A.I.couldaccountforupto10%ofoverallITbudgetsversusaround1%in2023.Software-basedA.I.spendingwillbecomea“laserfocus”ofCIOsaroundtheglobe,Ivespredicted.
Headded:“Inanutshell,therewillbewinnersandlosersintech,butultimatelyweseeastrong[secondhalfoftheyear]aheadforthetechsector.Whilebearswillcontinuetofretabouttechvaluationsandtheuncertainmacrobackdrop,webelievethisultimatelyisthestartofanewtechbullmarketweseeheadinginto2024,beingdrivenbythisA.I.revolutioncoupledwithastabilizingITspendingenvironment.”
IveshaspreviouslydeclaredtheA.I.boomanotherinternetmoment,buckingsomeinvestors’concernsthatthetechisformingamarketbubblethatwillinevitablyburst,inaseparatenotesentearlierJune.
SinceOpenAI’sChatGPTgenerativeA.I.chatbotbecameaphenomenonwithusersallovertheworldinlate2022,BigTechhasampedupitsowneffortsinthespace,withMicrosoft,Google,Amazon,andBaiduvyingtoofferthebestcompetitor.
Broadertechrally
Becauseofthehuge,rapidinvestmentsbeingmadeinA.I.,theunexpectedtechrallythathasunfoldedsofarthisyearwillcontinuetoanevengreaterextentthroughouttherestoftheyear,IvessaidinJune26’snote.
“Headingintothesecondhalfof2023,weseeamuchbroadertechrallyaheadasinvestorsfurtherdigesttheramificationsofthis$800billionA.I.spendingwaveonthehorizonandwhatthismeansforthesoftware,chip,hardware,andtechecosystemoverthenextyear,”hewrote.
“Webelieveoverallthetechsectorwillbeupanother12%to15%inthesecondhalfofthisyearledbysoftwareandthechipsector,withBigTechremainingthe‘torchbearer’forthistechrallycontinuingtoheatup.”
WhileIvesnotedthat“manywillbenefitinthisA.I.armsrace,”henamedaslewofcompaniesthatwerelikelytomakemajorinvestmentsinthetechnologyandthereforebebeneficiariesofthe“immensemonetizationopportunity”itrepresented.
“WithMicrosoftaclearmarketleaderintheA.I.racealongwithNvidia,thisbattlewillbealongoneoverthenextdecadeasweexpectothertechnologycompaniesbesidesGoogle,suchasOracle,Amazon,Salesforce,Palantir,MongoDB,Apple,IBM,Meta,Adobe,Snowflake,C3.ai,andothertechstalwartsalongwithsmallerplayersintheindustry,tocollectivelyspendtensofbillionsoverthecomingyears,”hepredicted.
“WebelievethatMicrosoftisinauniquepositiontogainshareinthecloudmarketthatcouldexpandRedmond’stotaladdressablemarketaroundcloudby35%to40%overthecomingyears.”
A.I.hypedividesinvestors
Ivesclearlyisn’ttheonlymarketwatchertobelievethatthehypearoundA.I.isjustified.
InMay,buzzaroundA.I.chipssawinvestorspouringcashintoNvidiashares,pushingthecompanyintotheelite“trilliondollarclub”—whichcountsApple,Microsoft,andGoogleparentAlphabetamongitsmembers.
IvespreviouslypredictedthatMicrosoft’sinvestmentinChatGPTcouldseethetechgiantenjoyasimilarboosttoitsvaluation.
Meanwhile,aFrenchA.I.firmtookadvantageofthehypearoundthetechearlierJunetoraisearecord$113millionjustweeksafterbeingfounded—despitehavingnoproductreadyandonlyjusttakingonstaff.
Otherinvestorshavepursuedafarmorecautiousapproach,ratherthanjumpingontheA.I.bandwagon.
HedgefundbillionaireKenGriffinwarnedinrecentweeksthattheA.I.communityismakinga“terriblemistake”byspreadinghypearoundthetechnology,whileARKInvest’sCathieWooddeclaredthatNvidia’sshareswere“pricedaheadofthecurve”thankstoA.I.excitement.
Meanwhile,veteraninvestorJamesPenny,CIOofTAMAssetManagement,warnedrecentlythattheA.I.hypewasstartingto“smelllikethedotcomera.”
WhenitcomestoA.I.’swiderimpactonhumanity,businessleaders,technologists,andA.I.expertsaredividedonwhetherthetechnologyofthemomentwillserveasa“renaissance”forhumanityorthesourceofitsdownfall.
Attherecentinvitation-onlyYaleCEOSummit,42%ofCEOssurveyedattheeventsaidtheybelievedA.I.hasthepotentialtodestroyhumanitywithinthenextfiveto10years.
Itisn’tjustCEOswhoareconcernedaboutwhatrapidlydevelopingartificialintelligencemightunleashupontheworld.
BackinMarch,1,100prominenttechnologistsandA.I.researchers,includingElonMuskandApplecofounderSteveWozniak,signedanopenlettercallingforasix-monthpauseonthedevelopmentofpowerfulA.I.systems.
ThreefamousA.I.pioneersnicknamedthe“godfathersofA.I.”arealsodividedonwhethersuperintelligentcomputerswillbringabouttheendofmankind.
Twoofthesethreeso-calledgodfathershave,inlightoftherecentbuzzaroundthetechnology,publiclystatedthattheyarefearfulaboutartificialintelligencebeingmisused,whilethethirdhascalledtheconceptthatA.I.willwipeouthumans“preposterouslyridiculous.”